The Rules of the Road:

Rail Baron Railroad Service Probabilities

by Steve Okonski

In Rail Baron, your destinations are determined by the roll of the dice combined with the region and city tables. Some destination cities are much more probable than others. At the top of the list is Oakland/San Francisco at 4.40%, and at the bottom is Fargo at 0.46%.

It's a good idea to keep these probabilities in mind when you purchase a railroad for your network. Having a railroad that serves Fargo is nice, but one that serves Oakland/San Francisco is much nicer. Computer simulations indicate a good correlation between the winner of the game and the combined probability of the cities served by his rail network.

Therefore, one of the primary factors you should consider when purchasing a railroad is the summed probability of all the cities it serves. As you might guess, expensive railroads have higher probability sums. What you want is "bang for the buck," specifically, the highest probability at the lowest cost. The following table shows 1) the 28 railroads in Rail Baron, 2) sums of the probabilities of the cities each serves, and 3) the "bang for the buck" factor (the probability sum divided by the railroad's purchase cost, in thousands):

New York, New Haven

6.94%

1.73

Boston & Maine

5.20%

1.30

Western Pacific

7.63%

0.95

Pennsylvania

28.08%

0.93

Richmond, Fredericksburg & Potomac

3.18%

0.79

Gulf, Mobile & Ohio

9.12%

0.76

Northern Pacific

10.33%

0.73

Chesapeake & Ohio

14.62%

0.73

Louisville & Nashville

13.15%

0.73

Burlington

14.21%

0.71

Baltimore & Ohio

16.84%

0.70

Illinois Central

9.81%

0.70

New York Central

19.46%

0.69

Northwestern

9.72%

0.69

Seaboard

9.72%

0.69

Rio Grande

4.01%

0.66

Milwaukee Road

11.57%

0.64

Atlantic Coast Line

7.46%

0.62

Santa Fe

23.51%

0.58

Great Northern

9.56%

0.56

Frisco

10.60%

0.55

Texas & Pacific

5.44%

0.54

Southern

10.82%

0.54

Rock Island

15.06%

0.51

Southern Pacific

20.97%

0.49

Missouri Pacific

9.97%

0.47

Union Pacific

16.43%

0.41

Norfolk & Western

3.97%

0.33

 

So, the New York, New Haven railroad offers over five times the bang for the buck that the Norfolk & Western does. However, you must apply the information in this table with some thought. The New York, New Haven is a great buy, but loses most of its value if none of your other railroads connects to it. Similarly, both the Pennsylvania and New York Central appear in the top half of the list, but since they serve many of the same cities, if you already own one, buying the other will not increase your total city service probability very much.

As you might surmise, the individual rail probability sum is less important than the combined probability of your entire connected network. What is the best network? In a balanced four-player game of Rail Baron, you might expect to purchase 7 of the 28 railroads. The fully-interconnected, seven-railroad network that yields the highest city service probability is: Southern Pacific, Union Pacific, Pennsylvania, Rock Island, Milwaukee Road, Louisville & Nashville, and Seaboard. This combination produces an 84.83% city service probability. Unfortunately, it costs $191,000, which is rarely affordable in a four-player game. A more feasible combination (though still a bit costly $151,000) is: Southern Pacific, Pennsylvania, Rock Island, Louisville & Nashville, Seaboard, Northern Pacific and New York, New Haven. This combination produces a very respectable 82.02% probability, and gives excellent map coverage plus connections.

Of course, rarely will you have the good fortune to assemble this exact network before an opponent can buy one (or more) of its components. Ideally, during the course of a game, you could analyze the network you have constructed so far, and determine which railroad addition gives you the best value. This would be quite tedious to calculate by hand, but is an easy task for a computer. Fortunately, the Rail Baron software can do the job. RBP offers a wealth of statistics about Rail Baron, and can analyze your network and suggest purchases. Furthermore, as its name indicates, RBP can also play against you. Download a free shareware copy from the Rail Baron Fanatics Web site: http://www.railgamefans.com/rbp/.

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When not busy with rail games, Steve manages a fantasy baseball team. Occasionally, he also finds time to create and sell interactive multimedia authoring software.